Monday, October 13, 2008

Today's Market...if complications could kill

Worried about your investments? Got money but, do not know where to put it? Seems like we are caught in a roundabout? A cycle of bad news that lead to more bad news. If these questions are somewhat troubling you, read on!

"Financial Institutions taking a plunge... Lehman Brothers... Merrill Lynch... now even the great RBS.... Subprime issue... housing market plunging too... Malaysia is politically unstable, yes it is, no it is not, yest it is..."get it?

So, What else can go wrong?

Is the media and the market trying to have us believe that we are heading for a terrible terrible recession or what? Why the focus on all the bad news?

That's the key question there, why the focus on all the bad news? How come it seems like it seems to pour when it drizzles? :D

Is it really the subprime or is it just a group of people high above the normal society who is orchestrating all this.

How does a USD 456 plus billion subprime issue effect the biggest economy in the world? You tell me.

According to numbers I have from 2006, the subprime market then stood at USD 456 Billion. The loan market on the whole was USD 2.4 Trillion. Mathematically, the subprime issue then, was only about one sixth of the housing loan cake. Are you telling me that in 2 years, now being 2008, there was a sudden growth that made the subprime the larger portion than the normal loans? Now, we are talking about the loan of the whole country, here. Let's look at Lehman Brothers... That's another joke! Did ALL the subrime loans go to them? If it did, then, serves them right, but logically, by using only half your thinking power, would a committee or a board (I really don;t know how they approve loans in the US) have let your financial institution take on so much risk without proper back ups or guarantees?

So? Should you worry? Yes, you should, if you invested with money you needed almost immediately.

Are we heading for uncharted waters with the current market scenario? Is this the worst it has ever been? Let me help you put things into perspective.

In the 1930's, the world went through something. It was and is called, "The Great Depression". The whole world was in recession and everyone then thought the world as they knew it was at its end. People would farm for themselves and businesses collapsed. Riots happened everywhere. Here are some facts:

The DOW was down 89%
Unemployment was at 25%
Bank Implosion stood at about 1400 institutions
Homes foreclosures was as high as 20%

Compared to today's figures? YOU tell me because, if you did not know and were still worried about it, it does say loads about yourself, doesn't it? (Someone who loves worrying and could go into the worry mode at the drop of a hat :D) Do some research! Look for yourself at www.finance .yahoo.com...Only one site ma.... ( Sorry the chinese in me just kicked in :D)

In Conclusion:

Those who decide to take part in the recession, if there is one, will be part of the recession, but there will be a some of us who will decide not to let the recession bring us down. The latter will be those who position themselves for the big windfall when the market comes back up or when the situation improves. These are the millionaires of the future, the Fortune Makers. These would have been the peole who were said to be at the right place at the right time.

As Warren Buffet said, "When the market is greedy, be fearful. When the market is fearful, be greedy!"

Investment success is always about successfully managing your emotions. Whichever investment consultant is with you during this 'bad-times' is the one you should keep forever. They are hard to come by.

My Believe:

Human beings are resilient. We have made it through the worst of situations and come out winners. We can only triumph when we think correctly. Think positively. Think in a certain way.


My final take:

  1. Stay invested! Doesn't make good business sense to buy high and then sell low. And, if you are investing in Unit Trust, by selling now, you are helping in the weakening of the fund you are currently invested in by forcing the fund managers to sell what they have now at a much lower price than when they bought it.
  2. Start buying! Keep Buying! What do you think Warren Buffet's doing now? Do you think he has bought high and will be selling low?
  3. Stay away from ANY business media! Especially if you panic easily, for these are bearers of bad news
  4. Revert to basics when it comes to investment! Primarily, invest only with excess funds and manage your emotions or get an investment coach to help you do that.
  5. Don't put your money in the bank for 'Safe-Keeping'! Think of inflation. Can the bank pay you more than the national average inflation rate? There are many legal vehicles out there that pays about 12% guaranteed and 20% almost guaranteed per year. ( :D I am contactable through my email) That's above the inflation rate for most countries.
  6. Don't tie up your all your money in any above-3-years capital guaranteed programs: The guarantee is going to cost you in the long run.
  7. Don't put all your eggs into one basket:

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